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Monday, November 16, 2009

How Long Can Najib Keeps His Pressure Cooker From Exploding?

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A very interesting forum where we got to learn the methodology of Merdeka Center conducting their polls. Charts, figures, percentage and breaking down into details right to the opinion of each different races and ages. Of course the forum cannot end without the usual Q & A. The accuracy of the poll, especially if it is political, depends mostly on the individual and his/her affiliation to the party, how they would want to view it. You can read more about the forum detail at Masterwordsmith.

You can find more about the Merdeka Center at their website, but be forewarned that one of their sponsor is umno/bn and you may feel a little agitated by some of their lopsided news although in the forum, Ibrahim Suffian, the Head of Programs and a Director of the Merdeka Centre of Opinion Research, assured that all their polls were conducted professionally and are independent.

Malaysiakini reported, according to Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian, Barisan Nasional would fare better than the last general election if the 13th general election is held today. He said BN may also regain its two-thirds in the 222-seat lower house of Parliament, with rival block Pakatan Rakyat winning about 50 to 60 full story here.
These are Ibrahim Suffian opinion and we will respect his opinion as such, since he is the one conducting all those polls and have a great insight of the overall general views.

After the forum, I had a short talk with Ibrahim Suffian to raise my concern on the polls accuracy especially the political ones. I pointed out that tracking poll, like the political poll should be based on the same core group of about 5,000 people. Since the media is always biased, Merdeka Center should also take the same poll online and consider the online poll results in their overall analysis. At present their poll usually has a +/- variance of about 3% but I disagree and put the variance to be as much as between 15% to 20%.

Anyway, this is just my point of view. I would not take their political poll as accurate, the simple reason being, Merdeka Center, other survey companies and political experts did not get the right forecast and most of them are way off on their results for the 12th GE tsunami.

Ibrahim Suffian opinion as reported by Malaysiakini looks accurate, but we have to factor in the 20 million ringgit spent to lift the image of 1 PM, the sweet and sounding report by the media and the blast of ads by all the local TV stations. If these were taken away will his opinion remain the same?

Now, what happen to umno ketuanan melayu policy, utusan racist reporting and umno leaders usual race division remarks. These are all being put into the pressure cooker by 1 umno president. You can see that umno is now "umno for all", utusan silencing on their racist report and umno leaders coming out with statements friendly to the Indians and Chinese.

We know it is hard for umno members and leaders to stomach such a dramatic change by their 1 umno president to give in to the other races demand. Majority also know that these are just superficial changes remark by 1PM, unless they see concrete implementations and changes to all his talks, they are keeping quite for now. 1 PM knows that he needed the votes of other races, in order for umno to remain in power, so he is just doing what he needs to do to entice the voters to return to umno/bn fold.

Until the 1 PM can be assured of a resounding victory in the next GE, umno members, leaders and utusan have to stay inside the pressure cooker to stop them from coming out with statements that can antagonised the other races.

How long can they stay inside the pressure cooker with its air vent plugged as well, time will tell. 1 PM has still a lot to give in to the other races, especially the Chinese, in order to regain their confident and vote but is umno members, leaders and utusan going to stay quietly and patiently inside the boiling pressure cooker?

Ibrahim Suffian opinion is a wake up call for Pakatan Rakyat, which is good and timely while 1PM must understand that he needs to put into actions all his talks fast before his own pressure cooker explode.


  1. Hi Richard

    Thanks for linking this post to my blog. I do agree with your view and am of the opinion that the sample for the research should be the same to increase the validity and representativeness of the research. As it is, the fact still remains that PR had better shape up or be prepared to be shipped out. Take care and all the best to you.


  2. Hope you don't mind my linking back to your post from my blog.

    Was kinda disappointed that you did not attend the SABM roadshow. Have information to share with you and also need your feedback on a proposal Haris and I discussed for SABM Penang.

    We need to meet soon as you earlier suggested. A bit busy this week but let me try for next week. Will email you soon.



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