I had posted an article in 2010 that He will win solidly if GE 13 is called any month within that year and I still hold my believe till the eve of Bersih 3.0. Even with His statement of 'crushed bodies & lost lives' and rumors that His special team reporting to Him that He may lose the 13 GE, I still believe He will win solidly.
But everything seems to fall into place post Bersih 3.0 indicating that He is indeed fearful of losing the 13 GE.
Surveys after surveys giving the same results that His popularity is gaining traction and many voters are returning to His stable. This is true but what we understand is that most surveys were carried out via telephone. I still accept the results and reading from political expert opinion I believe He will win solidly and that is up till the eve of Bersih 3.0
A Fluid Situation
I stop wasting my time on twitter after seeing how those cybertroopers armchair critics can spin, distort and lie to get into His good book and strongly supported by the MSM, even crowning them as 'sensational twitterer'.
When and where do you go to get the most accurate political survey? Let me tell you where I went. Pasar malam (night markets) and early morning wet markets, these are the people who are seldom interested in politics but still are aware whats happening around them.
Talking to them face to face can somehow tell you what were inside their minds even if they lied. Of course not all those you approached are willing to share their political views but you still get a decent 6 out of 10 people willing.
It is true that He is gaining popularity and the various surveys confirmed that. It is also true that those who voted the opposition in 308 are now considering voting Him. But, there are also those who voted the ruling government in 308 that will not be voting them again.
Generally, most were taken in by His disbursement of CASH but many do not believe or understand His never-ending alphabet soup – GTP, ETP, PTP, NEM, NKEA, NKRA, NEAC, EPP,....Sadly for Him He can't contest in every seats in the country and majority of the voters are waiting to see who their candidates will be in their respective constituency before deciding which party to vote.
So, by being popular individually with a high of 69% may reap in a few extra votes and this conclude that He is a few points ahead but the overall situation is fluid. I believe that this fluidness is the cause of concern for Him and interpreted by His special team as 'may lose'.
Creating And Finding Excuses To Avoid GE 13?
The only way to call off GE 13 is when the country is in turmoil!
Is He planning to avoid GE 13 in as early as 2010 when calling for 'crushed bodies and lost lives'? Initially my thought was that He was just instilling fear but subsequent happenings that followed indicated that not only fear but a message to carry it out when necessary.
Later on, His speech with racial tone at Pekida to rile up more Malay support and His silence over Perkasa and MSM, especially Utusan irresponsible racist and religious reports and statements.
While He kept silence, on the ground, gangsterism & hooliganism provocations were at work with the latest report of riot at Merlimau. All these are to create tension among the rakyat and they are just waiting for the rakyat to get impatient and retaliate back when all hell will break loose. Luckily the rakyat are not responding back physically but waiting patiently to vent their anger at the ballot box, is He willing to let this happen?
One salvo after another to get the rakyat to response to their gangsterism & hooliganism provocations but to their dismay the rakyat are smart enough.
The best opportunity came when Bersih 3.0 was held. There is no reason to stop Bersih from holding the rally at Dataran Merdeka but they went ahead to get the court order banning anyone from entering. WHY?
The chaos that ensued after 3pm that day is now under investigation. The statement from various authorities were that 'rioters' breached the barricade and they are doing a great job to contain the 'rioters'. But if you were there on that day or reading from other reliable news reports and those who wrote their experiences facing the tear gas and water cannon, journalists attacked and the way they rampaged through the city trying to catch as many as possible, you will realised that the authorities claim were incomplete.
The way they handled the supposedly called rioters who breached the barricade was indeed trying to create more chaos. I could not leave after the rally when the LRT stations were closed, no buses and taxis. I call it an 'entrapment'. You can read my Bersih 3.0 story here.
The best opportunity they had was Bersih 3.0 but failed again because the rakyat do not have any intention at all to start a riot nor overthrowing the government.
Seeing that failure they changed their script with ex IGPs claiming of communist presence and mimicking His statement that Bersih 3.0 rally was trying to overthrow the government. The bombarding and demonisation campaign against Bersih 3.0 continue till today while His people are hard at work trying to link all sorts of bad things that Bersih 3.0 were, in order to find it guilty and getting the rakyat to hate and reject it.
Next, He tried using His party anniversary to show He can gather a bigger crowd but failed yet again. Now He has no choice but to target individuals. Ambiga is now being harassed, opposition leader Anwar charged together with Azmin and Badrul hoping that their supporters will rise in anger. We can expect more gangsterism & hooliganism provocations and He will continue to remain silent.
Lastly, do you see what He meant when He compared the coca cola secret recipe in not revealing the polling date? Coca cola recipe has been kept secret for over a century and will never be revealed. Is He trying to hint that GE 13 will never happened?
Whatever He may try to do, the rakyat must remain calm and not retaliate to whatever provocation physically. Be patient, just leave the scene of any provocation, nobody is calling you a coward. We only have less than a year when the 5 years term is up and if we remain tolerant and ride through their gangsterism & hooliganism provocations He will have no choice but to dissolve parliament and call for GE 13.